It’s not unusual for the party in government to experience a boost in popularity when they have a change of leader mid-term. It happened when Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair in 2007 and when Boris Johnson replaced Theresa May in 2019. And while Liz Truss’ brief spell as Prime Minister didn’t help the Conservatives, Andy Burnham’s arrival on 20th July has certainly raised Labour’s poll ratings, in what’s being billed as the ‘Burnham Bounce’.
On 13th July, a week before Andy Burnham took over from Keir Starmer, Labour were tied with the Conservatives on 19% voter approval, five points behind Reform UK. But by 10th August, Labour had climbed to 24%, ahead of Reform UK on 22% and the Conservatives on 20%. This is Labour’s highest approval rating since the beginning of 2025 and the first time in 16 months that they have edged ahead of Reform.
And in a poll of UK voters carried out by City AM/Freshwater Strategy in July, Andy Burnham’s approval rating showed him to be “the most positively received figure in British politics and the only leader whose approval materially exceeds his unfavourability (42 per cent favourable against 30 per cent unfavourable)”.
Confidence in the economy has also been boosted
The GfK Consumer Confidence Barometer powered by NIM, which provides a monthly snapshot of how UK consumers feel on five key economic measures, showed a jump in every area in July. This is the biggest monthly increase in consumer confidence for almost three years.
While hopes that the Middle East conflict might stabilise, and the positive atmosphere created by the World Cup have undoubtedly had an effect, Neil Bellamy, Consumer Insights Director at GfK, says: “The sense of a fresh start following the appointment of a new prime minister surely accounts for some of this bounce. The lion’s share of the improvement is in the economy, with a ten-point advance in how consumers view the past year and an eight-point gain for the next 12 months.”
A fresh, positive approach
It’s worth noting that while Keir Starmer’s popularity might have been at an all-time low pre-Burnham, the economy was actually doing relatively well. What seems to have been the main cause of the ‘bounce’ is the fresh attitude Andy Burnham has brought and the hope his appointment has given people that there are better things to come.
During his nine years as mayor of Manchester, the city became the fastest-growing part of the UK economy and consistently attracted more foreign investment than any other region in the UK, outside London. He also had great success improving public transport, particularly by the bringing the bus network back under public control for the first time in 40 years.
In just his first week as Prime Minister, he made it clear that tackling the cost of living is a priority for him, immediately announcing a cap on bus fares and a cut to energy bills. And it looks as though his pledge to improve daily life for ordinary working people across the UK, with a decade of positive changes behind him, has boosted hopes and expectations.
How is this increase in confidence likely to impact the property market?
Buying a home is one of the biggest financial investments most people make in their life, and moving is an emotionally significant event. The more optimistic and confident people feel about the economy – and therefore their own financial stability, job prospects, etc. – the more encouraged they are to buy, sell and move.
So, while the Burnham Bounce might not directly impact the property market, this rising confidence in both the current Labour government and the economy is a strong indication that we can expect home moving activity over the coming months to continue at the current rate – or even slightly increase.
If you would like to find out more about what’s happening to the property market in your own specific area, just get in touch with your nearest branch and have a chat with one of our experts.
